[introduction]
This is the best time and the worst time. An old global system is collapsing, a new global system is accelerating to form, and China is becoming a participant, builder and leader of the new global system. Under the background of the new era, will stone man continue the tradition, or break the cocoon and become a butterfly to write the next decade of China's economy?
[text]:
2020
Epidemic ravages
Super Black Monday in global financial markets
US stock melting
Dow Jones index down 2000 points
I don't know about the epidemic
How many more historic moments can it trigger......
01 accelerated deterioration of global epidemic
Recently, China's epidemic has been gradually controlled, but the spread of the epidemic around the world has accelerated. Italy, South Korea, Iran and other industrial countries have become major disaster areas. At present, the number of confirmed cases overseas has exceeded 30000. The number of confirmed cases per day is increasing by 4000 + and the death toll is close to 1000. For a long time, we have said to plan for the worst in the face of the epidemic, but at present, the "worst" seems to have no bottom line.
According to statistics, Italy, a heavy industrial country with a total population of only 60 million, now has more than million infected people. The tough closure measures announced by the Italian government on March 10 once again caused great panic, and the people fled everywhere, and riots occurred in many prisons. It can be predicted that the Italian epidemic control will be severely tested, and Italy is ushering in a "dark time".
Italian people fled
The number of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases has risen rapidly since the first case of new crown pneumonia in Iran in the Middle East, and 8000 cases have been confirmed and the virus has been hit by high level politics in February 19th.
Only from the level point of view, Iran is suffering greater losses than a local war! What's more worrisome is that the local medical conditions, which are about to collapse, are simply unable to withstand the outbreak of the domestic epidemic.
In addition, countries all over the world are suffering from different degrees of epidemic attacks, and people are frantically hoarding goods and robbing supermarkets. The economic impact caused by the virus is even more terrible, which can be called grief and glory. A large number of factories and stores are facing bankruptcy
02 frequent Black Swan events
Previously, the analysis of the impact of the new crown outbreak on the domestic economy and the international economy has been seen in various media. We all hope that the epidemic will be stable as soon as possible, and the enterprises will return to work as soon as possible to reduce the losses. However, unexpectedly, with the deterioration of the epidemic, the black swan incident on March 9 hit the global economy hard!
On March 9, it was called "Super Black Monday" by major media and financial players. At that time, the key words of economic turbulence were once again on the hot search - the sharp drop in international oil prices, the sharp drop in the stock market.
It is reported that the direct cause of the collapse of international oil prices is the breakdown of negotiations among major oil exporting countries on limiting production. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia launched an "oil war" on a global scale, which led to a 30% drop in international oil prices, a rare moment in history: oil prices are even cheaper than mineral water.
Subsequently, the Asia Pacific stock market reacted quickly to the sharp drop in oil prices, with the stock indexes of Japan, Hong Kong and China plummeting by more than 4%; then the European stock market opened, resulting in a larger decline. In Germany, the mainstay of the European economy, the stock market once plummeted by more than 8%, and Italy, the worst affected country in Europe, plummeted by more than 11%. US stocks also dived quickly after opening. Dow Jones, NASDAQ and standard & Poor's all fell more than 7%, temporarily trading for 15 minutes after touching the US stock circuit breaker mechanism.
The U.S. stock fuse that hasn't been seen in more than 20 years has come like this.
The two-day global capital market earthquake is extremely rare in history. It takes the Super Collapse of oil price as the fuse, the collapse of Asia Pacific and European stock markets as the prelude, and the fuse of American stock market as the climax. The large drop involved many countries and regions and the large scale of evaporation market value, which all investors will never forget.
The reasons to explore the deep-seated causes of this oil price collapse are: in 2019, the overall downward pressure on the development of the real economy increased; in 2020, the spread of the new crown epidemic in the global scope further hit world production, the global industrial chain was greatly impacted, and the international oil consumption capacity declined. It can be predicted that the current unbalanced and unhealthy supply and demand relationship will further deteriorate under the promotion of Saudi Crude oil production expansion.
No wonder, novel coronavirus pneumonia is a real threat to the global pandemic, who said. Perhaps, Saudi Arabia's drastic reduction of oil price is the most obvious feature of the global economy from the era of increment to the era of stock, even the era of residual quantity.
03 China's "new infrastructure" boosts economy
Economic globalization and supply chain globalization make the impact of epidemic in a region more magnified.
The chain reaction brought by the epidemic will be far more simple than what we have seen... The sharp drop in sales of industrial and commercial enterprises, the precipice of profits, the overdue debt, the unemployment of workers and the social riots are all on stage.
As for the development of the global epidemic, academician Zhong Nanshan said that the development of the global epidemic will last at least until June.
Self help, perhaps, is the only thing we can do now.
Recently, at the sensitive time point of global outbreak and economic shock, China's epidemic control has achieved significant results. At the same time, it has also put the resumption of production of enterprises and the promotion of China's economy in the first place. Recently, the concept of "new infrastructure" put forward by the state ministries and commissions will become a good medicine to stimulate China's and even the global economy.
Since the economic work conference was held at the end of 2018 to clarify the positioning of "new infrastructure construction" such as 5g, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet, the official deployment of "new infrastructure" has gradually deepened. At present, the official proposal
04 development opportunity of stone industry under the background of new economy
As a subdivision industry closely linked to the world, stone is hard to be independent in any international situation. Moreover, stone is highly dependent on the key areas of the current overseas epidemic (Italy, Japan, Iran, the Mediterranean, Europe and the United States and other regions). More than half of the high-end marble imports and semi-finished products exports, overseas investment and M & A are closely related to the above countries.
After the impact of the domestic epidemic on stone enterprises, such as delayed resumption of production, falling domestic demand, and near breaking of cash flow, the overseas market of stone materials has been severely damaged again. Many small and medium-sized enterprises will not survive the "cold winter" even under the domestic and foreign troubles.
In this unfavorable environment, we suggest that stone enterprises keep pace with the pace of the country, and under the environment of quantitative easing of fiscal and monetary policies given by the country, re layout and re sail.
First of all, we should continue to cooperate with the government in the prevention and control of epidemic situation, effectively avoid imported epidemic situation, and prevent enterprises from getting worse;
Second, under the global epidemic situation, the overseas investment layout of stone materials should be re evaluated and carefully intervened. The global spread of the epidemic has cast a huge shadow on the global economy in the future. The Federal Reserve's high-level and unexpected interest rate cut has triggered central banks to follow, and the global economic crisis has come. The instability of policies and economy in various countries will continue to increase the uncertainty of overseas investment and M & A of stone enterprises. Overseas investment in the early layout and in transit should be re evaluated and carefully intervened;
Third, weaken the impact of countries with high incidence of overseas epidemics on stock import and export business. As we all know, Italy, Iran, Europe and the United States, the Mediterranean rim and other countries are the main countries of stone import and export, as well as the disaster area of the epidemic. It is pessimistic to expect that it will take more than three months for the overseas epidemic to stabilize. Therefore, it is particularly important to quickly adjust the stone business varieties of enterprises and weaken the business impact brought by the weakness of the overseas market. China's epidemic situation has gradually stabilized, and there should be room for the redistribution of the domestic market.
Fourth, reduce liabilities, keep cash and wait for opportunities. Under the background of active national finance and stable monetary policy, we should adjust the layout of assets and liabilities as soon as possible, reduce operating costs, enrich cash flow and wait for the market to stabilize.
Fifth, we should keep up with the policy and seize the strategic development opportunity of China's "new infrastructure". The investment intensity of China's over 30 trillion capital construction plan will be mainly distributed in Yunnan, Fujian, Sichuan, Henan, Shaanxi and other places, of which Yunnan's investment scale will reach 5 trillion, and other provinces' investment scale will be nearly 4 trillion.
Take Yunnan as an example. Among the major infrastructure projects, the most important ones are Yumo railway, Darui railway, Border Railway, border expressway, cross-border power grid and smart grid, which will radiate the whole ASEAN. This means that the infrastructure construction has more long-term strategic significance besides short-term economic boost, and the spillover effect on surrounding regions and countries will gradually appear. Therefore, stone enterprises should adjust their layout and focus their investment on the main areas supported by the state in the future.
Yunnan's strategic position
This is the best time and the worst time. An old global system is collapsing, a new global system is accelerating to form, and China is becoming a participant and builder of the new global system. We are looking forward to, we are working hard! As an indispensable participant in the construction of new system, stone industry will surely usher in the spring of the industry by adjusting the layout and seizing the opportunity!
